Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.433614 1.624894 1.827966 2.059162 2.314616 2.587777 2.901490
2025-01-05 1.125719 1.378349 1.663790 2.008525 2.411823 2.866883 3.417284
2025-01-12 0.915552 1.206911 1.556054 2.001388 2.550052 3.199418 4.021178
2025-01-19 0.740010 1.050503 1.444905 1.975373 2.661970 3.511743 4.632880
2025-01-26 0.631245 0.962114 1.406274 2.033877 2.883634 3.978454 5.477201
2025-02-02 0.535910 0.877083 1.360813 2.077895 3.091503 4.447730 6.369064
2025-02-09 0.449108 0.790061 1.300695 2.094220 3.263591 4.885675 7.259056
2025-02-16 0.379154 0.716627 1.249958 2.117318 3.447035 5.354857 8.230980
2025-02-23 0.307430 0.627015 1.161304 2.071828 3.524720 5.680745 9.028406
2025-03-02 0.242189 0.535342 1.055045 1.984147 3.527686 5.896298 9.682334
2025-03-09 0.202541 0.482416 1.005931 1.983022 3.665299 6.323601 10.680771
2025-03-16 0.166190 0.427858 0.945054 1.953253 3.751932 6.677364 11.591278
2025-03-23 0.145013 0.401915 0.936545 2.021260 4.019906 7.355831 13.082680
2025-03-30 0.115176 0.348870 0.865851 1.964834 4.066305 7.678640 14.034156
2025-04-06 0.094515 0.311867 0.821372 1.952541 4.190484 8.141558 15.248274
2025-04-13 0.076393 0.275750 0.771850 1.922848 4.278903 8.549899 16.400295
2025-04-20 0.066395 0.258961 0.763092 1.976549 4.531215 9.263290 18.115277
2025-04-27 0.057119 0.241297 0.748938 2.016651 4.760718 9.952335 19.831475
2025-05-04 0.048082 0.221130 0.724511 2.030240 4.937815 10.557745 21.437205
2025-05-11 0.040756 0.203958 0.704393 2.050842 5.131103 11.206330 23.158277
2025-05-18 0.032515 0.179722 0.659456 2.005060 5.178214 11.579176 24.398665
2025-05-25 0.024806 0.153455 0.602020 1.918611 5.126401 11.754433 25.281771
2025-06-01 0.020520 0.139634 0.578853 1.916571 5.262630 12.310015 26.910109